Across multiple Bloomberg articles covering pivotal moments in Argentina's financial markets, Gardel provided analysis regarding peso forwards, exchange-rate expectations, capital flows, and central bank policy transitions.
Bloomberg Coverage — Argentina Sovereign Debt & FX Markets
Bloomberg highlighted investor expectations surrounding Argentina's sovereign debt negotiations and the strengthening of peso forward markets during a period of default.
"Because President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner refused to comply with orders to pay debt held by investors who didn't accept restructurings in 2005 and 2010. Investors are speculating that a group of foreign investment banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. will reach an agreement with the holdouts that will allow Argentina to resume paying its debt."
"Forwards have been 'strengthening aggressively in the past couple of days, which is totally unusual for a country that's in default,' Cristian Gardel, manager at brokerage Pampa Trading SA in New York, said in a phone interview. 'This has to be driven by the expectation that there will be an agreement soon.'"
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Bloomberg — Argentina Peso Forwards Head for Biggest Weekly Gain Since March
Bloomberg Coverage — Monetary Policy & Exchange Rate Dynamics
Bloomberg reported on Argentina's monetary policy transition and the role of exchange-rate flexibility in absorbing economic shocks.
"The most important thing is to have a central bank that is focused on inflation and then let the exchange rate do its job of being a shock absorber for the economy," Sturzenegger said from Shanghai, where he was attending the Group of 20 meeting.
"The peso is likely to appreciate in April as grain exporters sell the latest soybean crop, increasing dollar flows into the country," Cristian Gardel said. "Argentina's currency could get another boost should the administration be successful…"
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Bloomberg — Unstable Argentine Peso Is Just What the Central Bank Ordered
Bloomberg Coverage — Argentina Futures Market & Policy Expectations
Bloomberg also reported on shifting market expectations following changes in Argentina's central bank leadership and the impact on currency futures trading.
"There's the belief that the new central bank president won't devalue and that the rate of decline of the peso will be much slower than what was expected," Cristian Gardel, a manager at currency brokerage Pampa Trading SA in New York, said in a phone interview. "Banks are suffering a huge loss from futures trading because of this change of expectations."
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Bloomberg — Argentina's $480 Million Futures Losses Article